Crypto Market Insights November
1) The current technical picture shows increased uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections and the Fed's rate decision. Therefore, we will refrain from making any expectations for this week. Our conservative analysis is within the range of 60-75k.
2) Open interest in options shows a significant bias towards call options. We cautiously speculate that upcoming volatility will initially demonstrate an increase, which traders will take advantage of.
3)Last week, inflows into ETFs contradicted the dynamics of BTC. This may indicate heightened expectations for ATH and further growth. This week will serve as a confirmation of this observation.
4) Despite a positive October, miner profitability remains at a low level. This indicates that the current price does not appear as attractive for them. While there is a certain buffer among these participants, a correction or sideways movement over the next year could lead to network instability.
Stock market
The dollar index showed significant growth in October. In our view, the price has accounted for policy considerations, and the technical pullback fits well into the current narrative.
Oil has been hovering around the equilibrium price for a week (where the price is generally acceptable to all). Despite it being a low season, a surge in volatility appears to be the most likely scenario in the near future.
3) The upward trend has been broken, but this week could bring us close to 6k. However, a small technical correction seems the most logical before a confident rise to 6k and beyond.
4) The UST yield curve continues to flatten, with the most noticeable changes occurring at the long end of the curve. Therefore, the optimal point remains at the 6-month mark, but it is gradually beginning to shift towards an increase.
Calendar of important data for this week:
1. U.S. Presidential Elections 2024 — November 5, 11:00 (UTC)
2. ISM Services PMI, October — November 5, 15:00 (UTC)
Expectations: 53.5, Previous: 54.9
3. S&P Global Services PMI, Final October — November 6, 14:45 (UTC)
Expectations: 55.3, Previous: 55.3
4. Non-Farm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Report — November 7, 13:30 (UTC)
Expectations: 2.3%, Previous: 2.5%
5. Unit Labor Costs, Preliminary Q3 Report — November 7, 13:30 (UTC)
Expectations: 0.8%, Previous: 0.4%